{
 "site": "Glitch in the Credit",
 "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/",
 "as_of": "2026-10-26",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-27T03:17:26+00:00",
 "summary": "As of Oct 26, 2026, the AI credit stress index is 52 out of 100 (Elevated). That's down 3 since Oct 25, 2026. 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.",
 "stress_index": {
  "value": 52,
  "scale": "0-100",
  "band": "Elevated",
  "bands": {
   "Quiet": "0-19",
   "Stirring": "20-39",
   "Elevated": "40-59",
   "Warning": "60-79",
   "Panic": "80-100"
  },
  "change_since_previous": -3,
  "previous_check": "2026-10-25"
 },
 "chain_reaction": {
  "complete": false,
  "flashing": 2,
  "of": 3,
  "missing": [
   "collateral"
  ],
  "layers": [
   "collateral",
   "borrowers",
   "funds"
  ]
 },
 "layers": [
  {
   "layer_key": "collateral",
   "layer": 1,
   "layer_name": "Collateral loses value",
   "score": 25.0,
   "status": "calm",
   "flashing": 0,
   "signals": 2,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/collateral/"
  },
  {
   "layer_key": "borrowers",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "score": 83.9,
   "status": "flashing",
   "flashing": 3,
   "signals": 4,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/borrowers/"
  },
  {
   "layer_key": "loans",
   "layer": 3,
   "layer_name": "Loans quietly go soft",
   "score": 57.5,
   "status": "watch",
   "flashing": 0,
   "signals": 3,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/loans/"
  },
  {
   "layer_key": "funds",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_name": "Funds feel pressure",
   "score": 93.3,
   "status": "flashing",
   "flashing": 3,
   "signals": 3,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/funds/"
  },
  {
   "layer_key": "plumbing",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_name": "Plumbing tightens",
   "score": 54.6,
   "status": "watch",
   "flashing": 1,
   "signals": 3,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/plumbing/"
  },
  {
   "layer_key": "people",
   "layer": 6,
   "layer_name": "People behave strangely",
   "score": 0.0,
   "status": "calm",
   "flashing": 0,
   "signals": 2,
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/people/"
  }
 ],
 "signals": [
  {
   "id": "gpu_rental",
   "signal": "GPU rental prices",
   "layer": 1,
   "layer_key": "collateral",
   "status": "calm",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "calm",
   "score": 0.0,
   "news_score": 0,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "FourWeekMBA: H100 rent hits $2.88 an hour",
   "source_url": "https://fourweekmba.com/ai-nvidia-h100-rent-hits-2-88-an-hour-up-44-since-december/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-24",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/gpu-rental/"
  },
  {
   "id": "lease_pullbacks",
   "signal": "Hyperscaler lease pullbacks",
   "layer": 1,
   "layer_key": "collateral",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 50.0,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Crypto Briefing: AI data center tenants want $5M a day for delays",
   "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/ai-data-center-tenants-delay-penalties/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-24",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/lease-pullbacks/"
  },
  {
   "id": "neocloud_equity",
   "signal": "Neocloud stocks",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_key": "borrowers",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "easing",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 85.8,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": 76.3,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "neocloud_momentum",
     "label": "Neocloud stocks vs their 125-day average",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "%",
     "percentile": 99.8,
     "score": 99.6,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "near_lows",
     "label": "Watched stocks within 10% of a 52-week low",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "%",
     "percentile": 98.1,
     "score": 96.3,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "neocloud_vol",
     "label": "CRWV swings vs its 90-day norm",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "×",
     "percentile": 69.3,
     "score": 38.5,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "weak_vs_strong",
     "label": "Neoclouds vs big AI spenders, last 20 days",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "pts",
     "percentile": 96.2,
     "score": 92.4,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CRWV",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "down_volume",
     "label": "Selling volume vs normal, BDCs and neoclouds",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "×",
     "percentile": 77.4,
     "score": 54.8,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIZD",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "StocksToTrade: CoreWeave slides as debt fears trump AI growth",
   "source_url": "https://stockstotrade.com/news/coreweave-inc-crwv-news-2026_10_26/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-26",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/neocloud-equity/"
  },
  {
   "id": "neocloud_bonds",
   "signal": "Neocloud bonds",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_key": "borrowers",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 99.9,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": 99.9,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "weakest_gap",
     "label": "CCC spread minus BB spread",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "bp",
     "percentile": 99.9,
     "score": 99.9,
     "as_of": "2026-10-23",
     "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A3HYC",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "Benzinga: CoreWeave bond yield hits record",
   "source_url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/bonds/26/10/62541064/coreweave-debt-stress-mounts-bond-yield-hits-record-as-stock-suffers-44-billion-wipeout",
   "as_of": "2026-10-22",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/neocloud-bonds/"
  },
  {
   "id": "customer_concentration",
   "signal": "Customer concentration",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_key": "borrowers",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 50.0,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Daloopa: CoreWeave customer mix",
   "source_url": "https://daloopa.com/?p=15410",
   "as_of": "2026-10-24",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/customer-concentration/"
  },
  {
   "id": "delayed_projects",
   "signal": "Delayed projects",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_key": "borrowers",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 100.0,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Stacker: Why nearly half of planned data centers are delayed",
   "source_url": "https://keyt.com/stacker-technology/2026/10/19/tech-companies-need-more-data-centers-so-why-are-nearly-half-of-all-planned-projects-delayed-or-canceled/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-19",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/delayed-projects/"
  },
  {
   "id": "pik_interest",
   "signal": "PIK interest share",
   "layer": 3,
   "layer_key": "loans",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 50.0,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "SEC EDGAR: Blue Owl Capital Corp XBRL company facts",
   "source_url": "https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0001655888.json",
   "as_of": "2026-06-30",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/pik-interest/"
  },
  {
   "id": "amend_extend",
   "signal": "Amend-and-extend deals",
   "layer": 3,
   "layer_key": "loans",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 50.0,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Valuation Research: Q3 2026 private credit update",
   "source_url": "https://www.valuationresearch.com/insights/private-credit-trends-q3-2026/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-15",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/amend-extend/"
  },
  {
   "id": "marks_vs_market",
   "signal": "Marks vs market prices",
   "layer": 3,
   "layer_key": "loans",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "worsening",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 72.6,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": 87.6,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "private_vs_public",
     "label": "Listed BDCs vs junk bonds, last 20 days",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "pts",
     "percentile": 93.8,
     "score": 87.6,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIZD",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "Reuters via Investing.com: private credit firms mark down more loans",
   "source_url": "https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-private-credit-firms-mark-down-more-loans-4886397",
   "as_of": "2026-09-30",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/marks-vs-market/"
  },
  {
   "id": "redemption_gates",
   "signal": "Redemption gates",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_key": "funds",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 100.0,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Angel Investors Network: BDC redemption crisis, $15.6B gated",
   "source_url": "https://angelinvestorsnetwork.com/alternative-investments/bdc-redemption-crisis-2026-private-credit-liquidity-gates",
   "as_of": "2026-10-20",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/redemption-gates/"
  },
  {
   "id": "bdc_discounts",
   "signal": "Public BDC discounts",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_key": "funds",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "easing",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 79.9,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": 66.5,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "down_volume",
     "label": "Selling volume vs normal, BDCs and neoclouds",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "×",
     "percentile": 77.4,
     "score": 54.8,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIZD",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "bdc_breadth",
     "label": "Listed BDCs down over 20 days",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "%",
     "percentile": 92.8,
     "score": 85.6,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BIZD",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "bdc_discount",
     "label": "Listed BDCs vs book value, weighted by size (10 BDCs)",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "% below book",
     "percentile": null,
     "score": 59.1,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/edgar/search/",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "Mercer Capital: what BDC discounts are signaling",
   "source_url": "https://mercercapital.com/insights/posts/2026/public-prices-private-marks-what-bdc-discounts-are-signaling/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-09",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/bdc-discounts/"
  },
  {
   "id": "cds",
   "signal": "Credit default swaps",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_key": "funds",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 100.0,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "CNBC: CoreWeave's market confidence erodes",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/coreweaves-market-confidence-erodes-as-bond-yields-spike-stock-sinks.html",
   "as_of": "2026-10-21",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/cds/"
  },
  {
   "id": "pulled_deals",
   "signal": "Pulled deals",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_key": "plumbing",
   "status": "flashing",
   "trend": "easing",
   "prev_status": "flashing",
   "score": 88.5,
   "news_score": 100,
   "data_score": 80.8,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "junk_vs_treasuries",
     "label": "Junk bonds vs Treasurys, last 20 days",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "pts",
     "percentile": 96.3,
     "score": 92.7,
     "as_of": "2026-10-26",
     "source_url": "https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    },
    {
     "id": "hy_spread",
     "label": "Junk bond spread",
     "value": null,
     "unit": "bp",
     "percentile": 84.5,
     "score": 69.0,
     "as_of": "2026-10-23",
     "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/BAMLH0A0HYM2",
     "value_note": "Third-party figure: shown on the site, not offered as data."
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "IFR: CoreWeave rout freezes data centre financing",
   "source_url": "https://www.ifre.com/bonds/2502504/coreweave-rout-freezes-data-centre-financing",
   "as_of": "2026-10-23",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/pulled-deals/"
  },
  {
   "id": "bank_lines",
   "signal": "Bank lines to funds",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_key": "plumbing",
   "status": "calm",
   "trend": "easing",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 25.3,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": 8.9,
   "metrics": [
    {
     "id": "loan_officers",
     "label": "Banks tightening business loans (net)",
     "value": 0.0,
     "unit": "%",
     "percentile": 8.3,
     "score": 0.0,
     "as_of": "2026-07-01",
     "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM"
    },
    {
     "id": "bank_lending_nbfi",
     "label": "Bank loans to nonbanks, 13-week change",
     "value": 4.04,
     "unit": "%",
     "percentile": 58.9,
     "score": 17.8,
     "as_of": "2026-10-14",
     "source_url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNFACBW027SBOG"
    }
   ],
   "source_title": "Troutman Pepper Locke: banks are pulling back",
   "source_url": "https://www.troutman.com/insights/banks-are-pulling-back-what-private-credit-funds-need-to-know-now/",
   "as_of": "2026-10-15",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/bank-lines/"
  },
  {
   "id": "ratings_insurers",
   "signal": "Downgrades and insurer exposure",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_key": "plumbing",
   "status": "watch",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "watch",
   "score": 50.0,
   "news_score": 50,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "Insurance Business: NAIC targets $1.2T in insurer private credit",
   "source_url": "https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/naic-targets-1-2-trillion-in-insurer-private-credit-with-tighter-solvency-rules-591242.aspx",
   "as_of": "2026-10-15",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/ratings-insurers/"
  },
  {
   "id": "exec_departures",
   "signal": "Senior departures",
   "layer": 6,
   "layer_key": "people",
   "status": "calm",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "calm",
   "score": 0.0,
   "news_score": 0,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "SEC EDGAR: KKR & Co. 8-K, Oct 26, 2026",
   "source_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126040706/ef20084337_8k.htm",
   "as_of": "2026-10-26",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/exec-departures/"
  },
  {
   "id": "filing_red_flags",
   "signal": "Late filings, auditor changes, restatements",
   "layer": 6,
   "layer_key": "people",
   "status": "calm",
   "trend": "steady",
   "prev_status": "calm",
   "score": 0.0,
   "news_score": 0,
   "data_score": null,
   "metrics": [],
   "source_title": "News and SEC filings search",
   "source_url": "",
   "as_of": "2026-10-26",
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/filing-red-flags/"
  }
 ],
 "collateral": {
  "floor_case": "mid",
  "cases": [
   "cheap",
   "mid",
   "dear"
  ],
  "scored_index": "silicon_data",
  "unit": "$ per GPU-hour",
  "floors": {
   "H100": {
    "cheap": {
     "full": 1.725,
     "cash": 0.633,
     "as_of": "2025-10-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 1.091,
      "power": 0.157,
      "space": 0.39,
      "opex": 0.086
     }
    },
    "mid": {
     "full": 2.339,
     "cash": 0.756,
     "as_of": "2025-01-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 1.583,
      "power": 0.18,
      "space": 0.458,
      "opex": 0.117
     }
    },
    "dear": {
     "full": 3.197,
     "cash": 0.935,
     "as_of": "2025-07-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 2.262,
      "power": 0.228,
      "space": 0.547,
      "opex": 0.16
     }
    }
   },
   "B200": {
    "cheap": {
     "full": 2.275,
     "cash": 0.881,
     "as_of": "2025-10-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 1.394,
      "power": 0.22,
      "space": 0.547,
      "opex": 0.114
     }
    },
    "mid": {
     "full": 3.026,
     "cash": 1.047,
     "as_of": "2025-01-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 1.979,
      "power": 0.253,
      "space": 0.643,
      "opex": 0.151
     }
    },
    "dear": {
     "full": 4.262,
     "cash": 1.3,
     "as_of": "2025-07-01",
     "parts": {
      "capital": 2.962,
      "power": 0.32,
      "space": 0.767,
      "opex": 0.213
     }
    }
   }
  },
  "inputs": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/data/collateral.json",
  "cushion": {
   "url": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/gpu-rental/",
   "note": "The cushion is the index rent divided by the full-cost floor. The rents are third-party, so the cushion is shown on the page, not offered as data."
  },
  "methodology": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/methodology/#gpu-collateral"
 },
 "gauges": [
  {
   "key": "ofr_credit",
   "name": "Credit stress (OFR)",
   "source": "OFR stress index, credit part",
   "url": "https://www.financialresearch.gov/financial-stress-index/",
   "kind": "index",
   "date": "2026-10-22",
   "value": -0.87,
   "change": 0.32,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 0.15,
   "flash": 0.55
  },
  {
   "key": "gz_spread",
   "name": "Corporate bond spread (Fed)",
   "source": "Fed GZ credit spread",
   "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html",
   "kind": "bp",
   "date": "2026-09-01",
   "value": 93,
   "change": 7,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 230,
   "flash": 310
  },
  {
   "key": "ebp",
   "name": "Bond fear premium (Fed)",
   "source": "Fed excess bond premium",
   "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html",
   "kind": "bp",
   "date": "2026-09-01",
   "value": -38,
   "change": -11,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 15,
   "flash": 75
  },
  {
   "key": "recession_prob",
   "name": "Recession odds (Fed model)",
   "source": "Fed excess bond premium model",
   "url": "https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/updating-the-recession-risk-and-the-excess-bond-premium-20161006.html",
   "kind": "prob",
   "date": "2026-09-01",
   "value": 9.1,
   "change": -2.4,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 25,
   "flash": 55
  },
  {
   "key": "sloos_ci",
   "name": "Banks tightening loans",
   "source": "FRED DRTSCILM",
   "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRTSCILM",
   "kind": "pct",
   "date": "2026-07-01",
   "value": 0.0,
   "change": -8.1,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 20,
   "flash": 40
  },
  {
   "key": "bank_nbfi",
   "name": "Bank loans to nonbanks",
   "source": "FRED LNFACBW027SBOG",
   "url": "https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNFACBW027SBOG",
   "kind": "yoy",
   "date": "2026-10-14",
   "value": 19.6,
   "change": -1.3,
   "status": "calm",
   "watch": 0,
   "flash": -5
  }
 ],
 "bdcs": {
  "summary": {
   "count": 10,
   "sector_status": "watch",
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    "pik_share": 0.075,
    "pik_share_prev": 0.0674,
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   {
    "ticker": "GBDC",
    "name": "Golub Capital BDC",
    "nav": 14.25,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "watch",
    "pik_share": 0.1096,
    "pik_share_prev": 0.0986,
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   },
   {
    "ticker": "BXSL",
    "name": "Blackstone Secured Lending",
    "nav": 25.53,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "watch",
    "pik_share": null,
    "pik_share_prev": null,
    "pik_date": null
   },
   {
    "ticker": "ARCC",
    "name": "Ares Capital",
    "nav": 19.35,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "calm",
    "pik_share": 0.152,
    "pik_share_prev": 0.1598,
    "pik_date": "2026-03-31"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "TSLX",
    "name": "Sixth Street Specialty",
    "nav": 16.24,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "calm",
    "pik_share": null,
    "pik_share_prev": null,
    "pik_date": null
   },
   {
    "ticker": "HTGC",
    "name": "Hercules Capital",
    "nav": 12.15,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "calm",
    "pik_share": 0.0828,
    "pik_share_prev": 0.0992,
    "pik_date": "2026-06-30"
   },
   {
    "ticker": "MAIN",
    "name": "Main Street Capital",
    "nav": 33.92,
    "nav_date": "2026-06-30",
    "status": "calm",
    "pik_share": null,
    "pik_share_prev": null,
    "pik_date": null
   }
  ]
 },
 "tender_offers_90d": {
  "offers": 55,
  "results": 6,
  "funds": 55,
  "gated": [
   {
    "company": "Barings Private Credit Corp",
    "date": "2026-10-06",
    "filled_pct": 46.84,
    "requested_pct": null,
    "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1859919/000185991926000088/bpcc-september2026sctoxixe.htm"
   }
  ],
  "latest": "2026-10-16"
 },
 "red_flags_recent": [
  {
   "date": "2026-10-26",
   "company": "KKR & Co. Inc.",
   "ticker": "KKR",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126040706/ef20084337_8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-10-20",
   "company": "Apollo Global Management, Inc.",
   "ticker": "APO",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1858681/000095014226002794/eh260845009_8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-10-15",
   "company": "Blackstone Inc.",
   "ticker": "BX",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1393818/000119312526422888/d59966d8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-09-17",
   "company": "Hercules Capital, Inc.",
   "ticker": "HTGC",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280784/000128078426000046/htgc-20260917.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-29",
   "company": "Core Scientific, Inc./tx",
   "ticker": "CORZ",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000183934126000016/core-20260729.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-24",
   "company": "Blackstone Secured Lending Fund",
   "ticker": "BXSL",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736035/000121390026081414/ea029902801_8k-blackstone.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-24",
   "company": "Blackstone Private Credit Fund",
   "ticker": "BCRED",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803498/000121390026081411/ea029902701_8k-blackstone.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-02",
   "company": "Nvidia Corp",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000060/nvda-20260628.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-07-01",
   "company": "IREN Ltd",
   "ticker": "IREN",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000114036126027202/ef20077190_8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-18",
   "company": "Blackstone Private Credit Fund",
   "ticker": "BCRED",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1803498/000121390026070098/ea029494301-8k_blackstone.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-18",
   "company": "Blackstone Secured Lending Fund",
   "ticker": "BXSL",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1736035/000121390026070092/ea029494501-8k_blackstone.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-06-05",
   "company": "Microsoft Corp",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526258667/d26760d8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-29",
   "company": "KKR & Co. Inc.",
   "ticker": "KKR",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1404912/000114036126023322/ef20074998_8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-26",
   "company": "Core Scientific, Inc./tx",
   "ticker": "CORZ",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000183934126000005/core-20260526.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-14",
   "company": "Microsoft Corp",
   "ticker": "MSFT",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/789019/000119312526224155/d125909d8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-12",
   "company": "Oracle Corp",
   "ticker": "ORCL",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526219708/d76569d8k.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-08",
   "company": "Nvidia Corp",
   "ticker": "NVDA",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000028/nvda-20260507.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-05",
   "company": "Core Scientific, Inc./tx",
   "ticker": "CORZ",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000162828026030553/core-20260430.htm"
  },
  {
   "date": "2026-05-04",
   "company": "Hercules Capital, Inc.",
   "ticker": "HTGC",
   "form": "8-K",
   "kind": "officer",
   "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1280784/000128078426000022/htgc-20260429.htm"
  }
 ],
 "grid": [
  {
   "id": "ercot_queue",
   "region": "Texas (ERCOT)",
   "metric": "Big power hookup requests",
   "value": 498,
   "unit": "GW",
   "status": "watch",
   "as_of": "2026-07-29",
   "reading": "498 GW across 688 requests, up from 474 GW in June. Roughly 90% of it is data centers.",
   "source_title": "Baxtel: Texas grid audit pauses new data center approvals across ERCOT",
   "source_url": "https://baxtel.com/news/texas-grid-audit-pauses-new-data-center-approvals-across-ercot"
  },
  {
   "id": "ercot_ready",
   "region": "Texas (ERCOT)",
   "metric": "Requests that look ready",
   "value": 65,
   "unit": "GW",
   "status": "watch",
   "as_of": "2026-07-29",
   "reading": "Only 150 requests (65 GW) passed the first screen for base-load service. 294 GW didn't even have a qualifying study. Most of the queue is a wish list.",
   "source_title": "Baxtel: Texas grid audit pauses new data center approvals across ERCOT",
   "source_url": "https://baxtel.com/news/texas-grid-audit-pauses-new-data-center-approvals-across-ercot"
  },
  {
   "id": "ercot_connected",
   "region": "Texas (ERCOT)",
   "metric": "Actually connected",
   "value": 7.5,
   "unit": "GW",
   "status": "watch",
   "as_of": "2025-12-13",
   "reading": "About 7.5 GW connected or at final approval, against a queue that was already 230 GW. That gap is the delay risk lenders are underwriting.",
   "source_title": "Introl: Texas data center bubble, 220 GW in queue, 7.5 GW connected",
   "source_url": "https://introl.com/blog/texas-ercot-220gw-data-center-bubble-december-2025"
  },
  {
   "id": "pjm_price",
   "region": "Mid-Atlantic (PJM)",
   "metric": "Capacity price, 2028/29",
   "value": 325,
   "unit": "$/MW-day",
   "status": "flashing",
   "as_of": "2026-07-14",
   "reading": "Cleared at the $325/MW-day cap for the third auction in a row. Power is the bottleneck, and it's getting pricier.",
   "source_title": "PJM Inside Lines: capacity auction procures 138,318 MW",
   "source_url": "https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources-as-work-continues-to-address-growing-electricity-demand/"
  },
  {
   "id": "pjm_short",
   "region": "Mid-Atlantic (PJM)",
   "metric": "Short of the reliability target",
   "value": 6831,
   "unit": "MW",
   "status": "flashing",
   "as_of": "2026-07-14",
   "reading": "The auction came up 6,831 MW short, and only 525 MW of new generation cleared. Forecast peak load rose about 2,000 MW, mostly on data centers.",
   "source_title": "PJM Inside Lines: capacity auction procures 138,318 MW",
   "source_url": "https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-capacity-auction-procures-138318-mw-of-generation-resources-as-work-continues-to-address-growing-electricity-demand/"
  },
  {
   "id": "us_queue",
   "region": "United States",
   "metric": "Power plants waiting to connect",
   "value": 2061,
   "unit": "GW",
   "status": "calm",
   "as_of": "2025-12-31",
   "reading": "About 2,061 GW of generation and storage waiting, down roughly 10% in 2025. Gas requests jumped 86%. Only 13% of what applied in 2000–2020 ever got built.",
   "source_title": "Berkeley Lab: Queued Up, 2026 edition",
   "source_url": "https://emp.lbl.gov/publications/queued-2026-edition-characteristics"
  }
 ],
 "events_recent": [
  {
   "id": "2026-10-24-nvidia",
   "date": "2026-10-24",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "headline": "CoreWeave, Nebius and IREN down 30%+ in October; Nvidia has $36B in neocloud backstops",
   "source_title": "CNBC",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/24/nvidias-role-as-ai-financier-faces-first-big-test-as-neoclouds-take-market-hit.html"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-23-ifr",
   "date": "2026-10-23",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_name": "Plumbing tightens",
   "headline": "CoreWeave rout freezes data center financing",
   "source_title": "IFR",
   "source_url": "https://www.ifre.com/bonds/2502504/coreweave-rout-freezes-data-centre-financing"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-21-crwv-cds",
   "date": "2026-10-21",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_name": "Funds feel pressure",
   "headline": "CoreWeave five-year CDS reaches about 1,145bp as bond yields spike",
   "source_title": "CNBC",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/21/coreweaves-market-confidence-erodes-as-bond-yields-spike-stock-sinks.html"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-20-crwv-bonds",
   "date": "2026-10-20",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "headline": "CoreWeave 2031 notes fall to about 80 cents, yielding 15.6%; shares at 17-month lows",
   "source_title": "Benzinga",
   "source_url": "https://www.benzinga.com/markets/tech/26/10/62470728/coreweave-bond-yields-15-5-percent-shares-17-month-lows"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-20-elice",
   "date": "2026-10-20",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "headline": "Korean cloud provider Elice Group drops 30% on its market debut",
   "source_title": "CNBC",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/20/data-center-stocks-slide-as-korea-ipo-plunges-30percent-pressuring-tech-sentiment.html"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-16-ipos",
   "date": "2026-10-16",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_name": "Plumbing tightens",
   "headline": "Firmus, SB Energy and AirTrunk postpone or cancel IPOs; nearly half of 2026 data center bonds are junk",
   "source_title": "Forbes",
   "source_url": "https://www.forbes.com/sites/giacomotognini/2026/10/16/why-debt-laden-neoclouds-could-become-a-trillion-dollar-wework-20/"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-16-nscale",
   "date": "2026-10-16",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "headline": "Nscale's data center delays show the risks for neoclouds ahead of its IPO",
   "source_title": "Bloomberg",
   "source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-10-16/nscale-ipo-data-center-delays-show-risks-for-the-neoclouds"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-10-15-cds",
   "date": "2026-10-15",
   "layer": 4,
   "layer_name": "Funds feel pressure",
   "headline": "CoreWeave CDS hit distress levels near 1,038bp; Oracle CDS set a record 288bp",
   "source_title": "CNBC",
   "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/15/coreweave-credit-default-swaps-hit-distress-levels-as-investors-sour-on-ai-debt.html"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-09-24-naic",
   "date": "2026-09-24",
   "layer": 5,
   "layer_name": "Plumbing tightens",
   "headline": "NAIC outlines tighter oversight of insurers' private credit in a letter to Sen. Warren",
   "source_title": "Willkie",
   "source_url": "https://www.willkie.com/publications/2026/09/the-latest-in-the-evolving-landscape-of-insurer-investment-regulation"
  },
  {
   "id": "2026-07-14-ny-moratorium",
   "date": "2026-07-14",
   "layer": 2,
   "layer_name": "Weakest borrowers crack",
   "headline": "New York imposes a statewide moratorium on hyperscale data centers",
   "source_title": "Tech Insider",
   "source_url": "https://tech-insider.org/us-ai-data-center-delays-cancellations-7gw-capacity-crisis-2026/"
  }
 ],
 "license": {
  "ours": "CC BY 4.0",
  "url": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "note": "Everything in this file is ours (CC BY) or public-domain government data (credit gauges: OFR and Federal Reserve). Third-party figures (prices) and the written readings, which quote them, are shown on the linked pages with credit but left out here."
 },
 "credits": "Prices from Yahoo Finance. Credit gauges: OFR Financial Stress Index (US Treasury) and the Federal Reserve Board’s excess bond premium file. Bank data: Federal Reserve via FRED. Filings: SEC EDGAR. GPU rents: Silicon Data and Ornn indexes, as reported in the news; open GPU price data: GetDeploying (CC BY 4.0).",
 "methodology": "https://glitchinthecredit.com/methodology/",
 "disclaimer": "Not a timing tool. Not financial advice."
}