# Glitch in the Credit

Follow the debt.

> All of the moving pieces behind the AI Debt bubble in one place. A daily 0–100 stress index for the AI debt boom (neoclouds, data center debt, private credit, BDCs), built from 17 signals across six layers, with credit spreads, BDC book values, SEC filings, grid queues and the Fed model’s recession odds. Updated every morning; every reading links its source.

Latest (Oct 26, 2026): stress index 52/100 (Elevated). 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.

## Today
- [Today’s full brief](https://glitchinthecredit.com/today/): every signal, gauge and table as plain HTML
- [Latest reading as JSON](https://glitchinthecredit.com/api/latest.json): the whole picture in one file
- [Full brief as text](https://glitchinthecredit.com/llms-full.txt)

## Signals and layers
- [GPU rental prices](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/gpu-rental/): calm, H100 about $2.88/hr, up 44% since December
- [Hyperscaler lease pullbacks](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/lease-pullbacks/): watch, No outright cancellations found; delay penalties now above $5M a day
- [Neocloud stocks](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/neocloud-equity/): flashing, CoreWeave $53.41, down 39% in a month; IREN down 45%
- [Neocloud bonds](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/neocloud-bonds/): flashing, CoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76%
- [Customer concentration](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/customer-concentration/): watch, Microsoft about 45% of CoreWeave revenue, down from 72%
- [Delayed projects](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/delayed-projects/): flashing, Roughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceled
- [PIK interest share](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/pik-interest/): watch, Mixed: Blue Owl's PIK share up to 7.9%, Hercules down to 8.3%
- [Amend-and-extend deals](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/amend-extend/): watch, Shadow default rate estimated above 10%
- [Marks vs market prices](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/marks-vs-market/): watch, BDCs mark loans at 97.6% of cost; the market prices them far lower
- [Redemption gates](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/redemption-gates/): flashing, Gates at several managers at once
- [Public BDC discounts](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/bdc-discounts/): flashing, Sector about 29% below stated NAV
- [Credit default swaps](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/cds/): flashing, CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record
- [Pulled deals](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/pulled-deals/): flashing, Data center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave rout
- [Bank lines to funds](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/bank-lines/): calm, Banks raising back-leverage costs and marking down collateral
- [Downgrades and insurer exposure](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/ratings-insurers/): watch, Rules tightening on $1.2T of insurer private credit; no downgrade wave yet
- [Senior departures](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/exec-departures/): calm, No CFO or senior exits; KKR and Apollo 8-Ks were board adds
- [Late filings, auditor changes, restatements](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/filing-red-flags/): calm, None found
- [Layer 1: Collateral loses value](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/collateral/): calm
- [Layer 2: Weakest borrowers crack](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/borrowers/): flashing
- [Layer 3: Loans quietly go soft](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/loans/): watch
- [Layer 4: Funds feel pressure](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/funds/): flashing
- [Layer 5: Plumbing tightens](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/plumbing/): watch
- [Layer 6: People behave strangely](https://glitchinthecredit.com/layers/people/): calm

## Data
- [Data and API](https://glitchinthecredit.com/data/): every dataset as JSON and CSV
- [Endpoint list](https://glitchinthecredit.com/api/index.json)
- [Full dataset as JSON](https://glitchinthecredit.com/api/v1/full.json): needs a free API key. A person subscribes at https://glitchinthecredit.com/newsletter/ and opens the key link at the bottom of any daily email. Send the key as `Authorization: Bearer <key>` or add `?key=<key>`. Limits: 10 requests a minute and 500 a day per key.
- [Daily archive](https://glitchinthecredit.com/daily/): a permanent page per check
- [RSS](https://glitchinthecredit.com/feed.xml)

## Background
- [How it works](https://glitchinthecredit.com/methodology/): scoring, sources and reuse terms
- [Glossary](https://glitchinthecredit.com/glossary/)
- [GPU collateral](https://glitchinthecredit.com/signals/gpu-rental/): H100 and B200 rent against what the chips cost to own (the collateral cushion). Our cost inputs and floors are open data at https://glitchinthecredit.com/data/collateral.json; the rents are third-party and stay on the page.
- [Credit gauges](https://glitchinthecredit.com/gauges/)
- [BDC book check](https://glitchinthecredit.com/bdcs/)
- [SEC filings](https://glitchinthecredit.com/filings/)
- [Newsletter](https://glitchinthecredit.com/newsletter/)

## Optional
- [Markets, gauges and grid](https://glitchinthecredit.com/markets/)
- [Newsletter issue, Oct 26, 2026](https://glitchinthecredit.com/newsletter/2026-10-26/)
- [Newsletter issue, Oct 25, 2026](https://glitchinthecredit.com/newsletter/2026-10-25/)

Our data is CC BY 4.0: credit “Glitch in the Credit” with a link. Not financial advice.