Skip to content
Glitch in the Credit

Home / Gauges / Recession odds (Fed model)

Recession odds (Fed model)

9% on Sep 1, 2026, −2.4 pts versus three months earlier. It’s calm.

Now
9% calm
Watch at
25%
Flashing at
55%
Source
Fed excess bond premium model

The chance of a US recession within 12 months that the Fed staff’s bond premium model gives. Monthly.

Last 30 readings

DateValueStatus
Sep 1, 20269%calm
Aug 1, 202613%calm
Jul 1, 202611%calm
Jun 1, 202612%calm
May 1, 202610%calm
Apr 1, 202614%calm
Mar 1, 202612%calm
Feb 1, 202612%calm
Jan 1, 202612%calm
Dec 1, 202514%calm
Nov 1, 202514%calm
Oct 1, 202512%calm
Sep 1, 202512%calm
Aug 1, 202515%calm
Jul 1, 202514%calm
Jun 1, 202514%calm
May 1, 202515%calm
Apr 1, 202518%calm
Mar 1, 202520%calm
Feb 1, 202513%calm
Jan 1, 202512%calm
Dec 1, 20248%calm
Nov 1, 202414%calm
Oct 1, 202410%calm
Sep 1, 202418%calm
Aug 1, 202420%calm
Jul 1, 202418%calm
Jun 1, 202420%calm
May 1, 202417%calm
Apr 1, 202414%calm