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Glitch in the Credit

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All 17 signals

Six layers, in the order things usually break. Each signal is calm, watch or flashing, and gets re-judged every morning from news and filings.

Checked Oct 26, 2026

SignalLayerStatusTrendReadingAs of
GPU rental pricesCollateral loses valuecalmsteadyH100 about $2.88/hr, up 44% since DecemberOct 24
Hyperscaler lease pullbacksCollateral loses valuewatchsteadyNo outright cancellations found; delay penalties now above $5M a dayOct 24
Neocloud stocksWeakest borrowers crackflashingeasingCoreWeave $53.41, down 39% in a month; IREN down 45%Oct 26
Neocloud bondsWeakest borrowers crackflashingsteadyCoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76%Oct 22
Customer concentrationWeakest borrowers crackwatchsteadyMicrosoft about 45% of CoreWeave revenue, down from 72%Oct 24
Delayed projectsWeakest borrowers crackflashingsteadyRoughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceledOct 19
PIK interest shareLoans quietly go softwatchsteadyMixed: Blue Owl's PIK share up to 7.9%, Hercules down to 8.3%Jun 30
Amend-and-extend dealsLoans quietly go softwatchsteadyShadow default rate estimated above 10%Oct 15
Marks vs market pricesLoans quietly go softwatchworseningBDCs mark loans at 97.6% of cost; the market prices them far lowerSep 30
Redemption gatesFunds feel pressureflashingsteadyGates at several managers at onceOct 20
Public BDC discountsFunds feel pressureflashingeasingSector about 29% below stated NAVOct 9
Credit default swapsFunds feel pressureflashingsteadyCoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a recordOct 21
Pulled dealsPlumbing tightensflashingeasingData center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave routOct 23
Bank lines to fundsPlumbing tightenscalmeasingBanks raising back-leverage costs and marking down collateralOct 15
Downgrades and insurer exposurePlumbing tightenswatchsteadyRules tightening on $1.2T of insurer private credit; no downgrade wave yetOct 15
Senior departuresPeople behave strangelycalmsteadyNo CFO or senior exits; KKR and Apollo 8-Ks were board addsOct 26
Late filings, auditor changes, restatementsPeople behave strangelycalmsteadyNone foundOct 26