Stress index 52 (Elevated, down 3): 2 of 6 layers flashing

52 out of 100, Elevated, down 3. 2 of 6 layers are flashing: weakest borrowers and funds. The chain reaction isn’t complete yet: collateral isn’t flashing.

What changed overnight

• Bank lines to funds went watch → calm: Banks raising back-leverage costs and marking down collateral source

Flashing right now

• Neocloud stocks: CoreWeave $53.41, down 39% in a month; IREN down 45% source
• Neocloud bonds: CoreWeave 2031 notes yield a record 15.76% source
• Delayed projects: Roughly 30–50% of 2026 US capacity delayed or canceled source
• Redemption gates: Gates at several managers at once source
• Public BDC discounts: Sector about 29% below stated NAV source
• Credit default swaps: CoreWeave 5-yr CDS about 1,145bp; Oracle at a record source
• Pulled deals: Data center financing reported frozen after the CoreWeave rout source

The numbers

• CCC spread: 1,356bp (vs 338bp for junk overall)
• Bank loans to nonbanks: +19.6% (over a year)
• Listed BDCs vs book, weighted by size: −13% (6 of 10 more than 10% below)
• Median PIK share: 11.0% (was 9.9% a year ago)
• Private credit funds running cash-out windows: 55 (last 90 days: 55 offers, 6 updates)
• Recession this year: 3% (yes)
• Recession in 2027: 21% (yes)
• Fed decision in Oct 2026: 94% (Fed maintains rate)
• Fed decision in Dec 2026: 75% (Hike 25bps)

Worth watching today

• Marks vs market prices (watch, getting worse): BDCs mark loans at 97.6% of cost; the market prices them far lower

Not a timing tool. Not financial advice.